The Formula 1 calendar returns to Imola for the highly anticipated 2025 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at the legendary Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari. As fans gear up for an electrifying weekend of racing, all eyes are on the weather forecast, which could play a pivotal role in strategy, tyre choices, and the overall dynamics of the race.
Friday, May 16 – FP1 & FP2 Conditions
Temperature: 21°C – 24°C
Sky: Partly cloudy with intermittent sunshine
Wind: Light breeze from the northeast at 10 km/h
Precipitation: 20% chance of light rain during FP2
Practice sessions on Friday are expected to begin under dry conditions. FP1 should be largely uninterrupted, allowing teams to gather consistent long-run data. However, a slight shift in atmospheric pressure late afternoon may trigger short-lived drizzle during FP2, potentially disrupting soft tyre simulations.
Saturday, May 17 – FP3 and Qualifying Weather Outlook
Temperature: 20°C – 22°C
Sky: Overcast with scattered showers forecast
Wind: Moderate winds at 15–18 km/h
Humidity: High – 78%
Rain Probability: 60% during FP3 and up to 70% for Qualifying
Saturday presents a significant challenge. FP3 is likely to be affected by unstable weather patterns coming in from the Ligurian Sea. The heaviest rain is forecast between 12:00 and 15:00 local time, aligning with the scheduled qualifying session. Drivers may face a wet-to-dry transition, amplifying the importance of tyre timing and team strategy.
Sunday, May 18 – Race Day Forecast
Temperature: 19°C – 21°C
Sky: Mostly cloudy with sunny intervals
Wind: Gentle crosswinds at 12 km/h
Rain Probability: 30% chance of light showers during the race start window
Track Surface: Damp early on, expected to dry during the race
Race day could deliver thrilling unpredictability. Overnight rain will likely leave the track damp at lights out, especially in shaded areas around Acque Minerali and Variante Alta. With moderate cloud cover and no sustained downpour expected during the race, a drying track scenario could set the stage for strategic gambles on intermediates or early slicks. Crosswinds may also affect cornering stability, particularly on the approach to Rivazza.
How Weather Conditions Could Impact Race Strategy
Tyre Strategy and Pit Stop Windows
If conditions mirror current forecasts, teams will be forced into hybrid strategies. Intermediates may be essential for the start, transitioning to soft or medium compounds as the circuit evolves. Rain-affected qualifying could mix the grid, giving midfield teams a shot at top-five finishes.
Setup Dilemmas: Wet vs Dry Balance
The fluctuation between wet and dry sessions complicates car setup. Teams face the difficult trade-off of maximizing grip for a wet qualifying without compromising straight-line speed and tyre wear for a drying race. Expect higher downforce settings, especially from teams like Alpine and Aston Martin, who typically favour mechanical grip.
Track Characteristics and Weather Sensitivity at Imola
Imola’s narrow layout, minimal run-off, and flowing technical sectors are highly sensitive to weather fluctuations. Rain typically pools at the Variante Bassa and the exit of Turn 7 (Tosa), both high-risk areas under wet conditions. Reduced visibility and spray from narrow sections such as Piratella to Acque Minerali add another layer of complexity.
Historical Weather Trends at Imola in May
Imola in mid-May is notoriously unpredictable. Over the past decade, four of the last seven Grands Prix held in this period have experienced rain-affected sessions. Notably, the 2021 Emilia Romagna GP saw torrential rain before the start, leading to multiple on-track incidents and a red-flagged race. The microclimate around the Apennine foothills means rain systems can form rapidly with minimal warning.
Strategic Recommendations for Teams and Drivers
- Qualifying: Maximize early banker laps in Q1 and Q2 in case of worsening conditions.
- Race Setup: Prioritize a flexible ride height and suspension setup to accommodate kerb usage in variable conditions.
- Driver Visibility: Pay attention to visor strip and tear-off strategies, particularly for drivers running in traffic during wet phases.
- Safety Car Probability: Elevated. Weather volatility and narrow escape routes make neutralizations or VSC periods likely.
Final Forecast Summary for the 2025 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix
| Session | Weather Condition | Rain Risk | Temperature | Strategic Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FP1 | Partly Cloudy | Low (20%) | 24°C | Ideal for race sims |
| FP2 | Possible Light Rain | Moderate (30%) | 22°C | Disrupts soft tyre runs |
| FP3 | Showers Expected | High (60%) | 21°C | Inter tyre data critical |
| Qualifying | Heavy Showers Possible | Very High (70%) | 20°C | Grid shake-up likely |
| Race | Mostly Cloudy, Drying Track | Medium (30%) | 21°C | Mixed tyre strategies anticipated |
Stay Updated with Real-Time Weather Alerts
As weather can change rapidly in Emilia Romagna, especially near the Santerno River valley, we recommend fans, teams, and race engineers monitor real-time satellite and radar updates throughout the weekend. The FIA and F1 Weather Centre will provide live alerts for approaching storm cells or delays.
